Purchases

Contributions

“Within state and local government spending, the revision reflected a downward revision to structures investment, based on new March and revised January and February VPIP data. Compensation was also revised down, based on revised Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Current Employment Statistics data on employment.”

Therefore, our contribution for State purchases in Q1 2021 is lower.

Levels

Grants

We couldn’t find documentation in the BEA on why investment grants were revised downwards. We assume it’s because they’re small anwyay.

Contributions

Levels

Taxes

Total

Contributions

Corporate taxes

Contributions

Levels

Non-corporate taxes

“Updates to Fourth-Quarter Wages and Salaries In addition to presenting updated estimates for the first quarter, today’s release presents revised estimates of fourth-quarter wages and salaries, personal taxes, and contributions for government social insurance based on updated data from the BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages program. Wages and salaries are now estimated to have increased $360.5 billion in the fourth quarter of 2020, an upward revision of $157.8 billion. The revision to fourth-quarter wages and salaries resulted in a revision to GDI; real GDI increased 19.4 percent (annual rate) in the fourth quarter, an upward revision of 3.7 percentage points from the previously published estimate.”

Our forecast is taking these revisions until the end of the forecast period. So these revisions lead to lower contributions than last time in the forecast period.

Contributions

Levels

Transfers

Total

Contributions

Levels

Health Outlays

State health outlays was revised up 7.1 billion from 164.14 to 171.21 billion

Federal health outlways was revised downward by 0.0

Contributions

Levels

Subsidies

Contributions

Levels

Unemployment Insurance

As of today, 24 states have decided to pull out of the federal unemployment insurance expansion. Therefore, we should revise our forecast for federal ui downwards.

Also, the federal ui program ends on September 6th, 2021 but we have it ending in Q2 2021.

Revise Q3 2021 to be 350 instead of 425

Contributions

Levels

Rebate Checks

Contribution

Level

Social Benefits Remainder

Level and impact of social benefits net of health outlays, rebate checks, and unemployment insurance.

The social benefits remainder came in 3.6 billion lower than we had last time. Almost half of this is due to Federal UI which came in 1.63 billion lower.

Contribution

Level

Look at PPP with subsidies mpc

Shave down arp mpc for rebate checks. Put money from first quartre into second (0.12, .12 and difference at the end)